CLIMATE Change Adaptation in the Barotse Flood plain of the Western Province of Zambia

The aim of this study/thesis was to explore how climate change is reshaping livelihoods in 3 study areas of the Western Province of Zambia also known as Barotseland. This thesis positions itself at the intersection of Climate change and rural livelihood. Specifically, the main aim of this study was to interrogate the interaction between climate change, rural livelihoods and adaptation strategies in three study sites in the Western Province of Zambia. Research suggests that climate change is the greatest threat to humanity and its impactful effects will be felt in the poorest areas of the world (Hallegate et al., 2017; IPCC, 2014; 2022; Tol, 2018). Climate change will have heterogeneous impacts across different regions of the world (Tol, 2018). This thesis explored rainfall and temperature changes and trends using scientific data in three study areas (Lealui, Nanikelako and Sefula) and compared these with local people’s observations in relation to these changes and trends.
Taking an interdisciplinary approach, through the application of qualitative and quantitative tools, the study analysed local people’s perceptions of changing climatic conditions in their local areas. The study extracts quantitative data to analyse changes and trends in rainfall and temperatures during the study period (1981-2019). The study brings together local people’s perceptions and climatic data to assess whether people’s perceptions fit into the climatic data. Chapter 5 of this study explores local people’s perceptions.
Rainfall onset, duratio and cessation have the greatest impact on rural livelihoods as the land’s productivity is realised when the rains feed crops, fill the rivers with water and nourish pastures for livestock (Mulenga et al., 2016). One of the main physical influences of climate change and variability, is its disruption on rainfall patterns across the world (Sultana and Gaetani, 2016; Serdeczny et al., 2016; IPCC, 2022). This thesis finds that during the study period, rainfall patterns have been shifting towards late onset, early cessation and shorter duration of rainy seasons duration. However, the study revealed that these changes and trends were shifting at insignificant rates as opposed to local people’s observations. Rainfall changes and trends are assessed in chapter 6 of this study.
Global averaged temperatures across the planet point to a more warming trend across the globe than cooling (Lindsey et al., 2020; IPCC, 2022). An upward trend in global temperatures is pushing livelihoods to precarious thresholds (Cullen and Anderson, 2017). This study shows that temperatures have been warming during the study period. However, the study also revealed that local people do not appear to pay much attention to temperature changesand trends as much as they did with rainfall. The lack of concern or attention in relation to temperature changes, in my view are explained by the fact that the effect of rainfall changes or variations are visible and impactful on people’s livelihoods compared to temperatures changes that can be slow and gradual. Temperature changes and trends are assessed in chapter 7 of this study.
In trying to explore the impact of these shifting rainfall and temperatures and how they are reshaping people’s livelihoods in the three study areas, I introduced the Livelihood Strategies Pathways (LSPs). The LSPs, as the main outcome of this study, was conceived during empirical data collection and literature review. The LSPs conceptualises how people negotiate and transition between livelihoods strategies. Employing a multidisciplinary methodology, I draw drew from several conceptual and theoretical lenses including sustainable livelihood frameworks, poverty and assets-based approaches. In doing so, I interrogated the plurality of the ways individuals and households combined their assets to construct livelihoods and respond to climate change within the broader social structures of institutions. In chapter 8, I employed the LSPs to investigate how people were responding or adapting to changing climatic conditions through plurality in asset deployment. I introduce the term ‘adaptation from below’ as way of exploring these adaptation measures that are mainly borne out of local or /traditional knowledge and woven in practices transposed from other parts of the world.