Bayesian Inference of Autoregressive Models

The principles, models and steps of Bayesian time series analysis and forecasting have been developed extensively during the past forty years. In order to estimate parameters of an autoregressive (AR) model we develop Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes for inference of AR model. It is our interest to propose a new prior distribution placed directly on the AR parameters of the model. Thus, we revisit the stationarity conditions to determine a flexible prior for AR model parameters.