Assessing the Climate-Smartness of Oil Palm Production Systems: A Spatio-Temporal and Carbon Balance Approach

There have been on-going efforts to implement policy and practices to produce oil palm in a more sustainable way. Under climate change condition, improved policy and management practices must prioritise strategies that address the intertwined goals of mitigation, sustainable production and adaptation, the core pillars of climate-smart agriculture. However, to date, there has been a lack of empirical assessment of climate-smartness across oil palm production systems under current and projected future climate conditions.
This thesis aims to assess the potential climate-smartness of oil palm production systems in Indonesia, the world’s leading producer, which is responsible for over 50% of global palm oil production. A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory with finer temporal resolution was used to investigate GHG emissions changes under current mitigation strategies using a coarse 500 m-grid across contrasting regions, management types, and soil types. At site-specific level, the APSIM-OilPalm model was employed to simulate the spatiotemporal variability of productivity and carbon balance for characterising climate mitigation and adaptation performance under current soil and management conditions in different oil palm sites. The APSIM-OilPalm model was also used to simulate the climate-smart metrics of various agronomic practice scenarios to identify the most climate-smart practice for oil palm production under a changing climate. The area of study for site-specific simulation is industrial oil palm plantations on mineral soils in non-deforested areas with zero-burning practices.
This study demonstrates a reduced emissions flux over periods and identifies low- and high-emission oil palm areas. Based on site-specific simulation, this study indicates that all observed OP sites act as a carbon sink ranging from –2.09 to –3.86 tCeq. ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ across different sites, and that 11 of 25 observed oil palm sites have high climate mitigation and adaptation performance, which is indicated by higher carbon sink values, yields and soil organic carbon increment. The study demonstrates that irrigation emerges as the most climate-smart practice for oil palm production systems under climate change. A higher projected temperature, along with site-specific higher nitrogen fertiliser and lower plant density, decrease the climate-smartness of oil palm production systems.
This study suggests that the climate-smartness of oil palm production systems is viable under current policy and management practices, with additional improvement needed to sustain this under future conditions. This finding provides insight for government to maintain current successful mitigation policy as well as for farmers and industry to monitor targeted management practices that enhance climate-smartness such as maintaining plant density, combatting pests and diseases, and optimising nitrogen fertiliser, as well as prepare for irrigation or water management to adapt to warmer conditions. This ensures meeting the rising demand for palm oil while improving productivity and compliance with global environmental standards.