This study examines how gender role attitudes are associated with fertility intentions in China across the period surrounding the implementation of the universal two-child policy. Drawing on data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2021, the analysis combines descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression to explore variations in intentions to have two or more children across survey years, social groups, and gender role orientations. Rather than estimating causal policy effects, the study treats the two-child policy as a contextual backdrop and focuses on changes in statistical associations over time.
The findings show that fertility intentions did not increase consistently during the two-child policy period. Instead, intentions varied across cohorts, education levels, employment statuses, and family situations. Individuals holding traditional gender role attitudes, such as endorsing a gendered division of labour, prioritising marriage over women’s careers, or accepting gender hierarchies in the workplace, consistently reported higher fertility intentions across survey years. In contrast, respondents with more egalitarian gender attitudes, particularly those supporting equal sharing of household labour, exhibited lower fertility intentions, with little evidence of convergence over time. Gender differences in overall fertility intentions were modest, and interaction analyses indicate that gender role attitudes, rather than gender alone, play a more salient role in shaping reproductive intentions.
These patterns suggest that fertility intentions in contemporary China are strongly embedded in enduring gender norms and socio-economic constraints. The two-child policy appears to operate selectively, aligning more closely with traditional family models while offering limited support to individuals pursuing gender equality under conditions of high work–family conflict. The study highlights the importance of integrating gender ideology, labour market structures, and family institutions into analyses of fertility intentions and underscores the need for gender-responsive social policies to support sustainable fertility outcomes.
