The Normative Influence of Climate Movements on the UNFCCC COP Negotiations

This thesis explores the normative influence of climate movements on climate negotiations— specifically, how global norms advocated by climate movements and transnational advocacy networks influence the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties (COPs). Building on the work of Nisbett and Spaiser (2023), which demonstrates that global climate movements permeate discourses around global climate change negotiations, this thesis further examines the impact of these global norms, normative frames, and configurations on COP negotiators and negotiations. The thesis employs the Theory of Cycles of Norm Change (Sandholtz, 2017) as its core theoretical framework. Norms rarely emerge or shift in isolation; rather, they are shaped by complex normative interlinkages and the strategic agency of diverse actors and alliances. These processes often involve the formation of norm clusters and constellations, where multiple norms interact and influence one another. Consequently, collective moral arguments and ongoing contestation among actors play a significant role in shaping how and why norms evolve. The thesis, therefore, examines the interplay between these factors to explain normative shifts.

The research adopts a qualitative methodology comprising two datasets: a discourse analysis of COP cover decisions and a qualitative content analysis of 20 semi-structured expert interviews. By triangulating the data with existing literature, the study identifies patterns of norm change and normative shifts, tracing how climate movements influence negotiators, negotiations, and outcomes. By examining case studies of key global norms—such as anti-fossil fuel, intergenerational equity, climate justice, loss and damage, human rights, global earth stewardship, ecocide and sufficiency as a principled idea—the thesis evaluates how these norms are referenced, adapted, or resisted in the negotiation space.

The research finds that climate movements act as norm entrepreneurs, seeding and disseminating normative configurations, while norm champions—including states, alliances, or individuals—play a crucial role in amplifying influences that aid normative shifts and gains in formal negotiations. Conversely, norm antipreneurs, including powerful fossil-fuel dependent actors, actively resist norm diffusion. The thesis contributes to the scholarship of norm dynamics, offering a conceptual lens to grasp the interwoven processes of normative emergence, contestation, and consolidation.