Maximising Oil Production Through Data Modelling, Simulation and Optimisation.

The research work presented on this thesis provides an alternative tool for characterising oil fields under fluid injection by analysing historical production/injection rates. In particular polynomial and radial basis Non Linear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Model (NARX) models were developed; these models were capable of capturing the dynamics of an operating field in the North Sea.
A Greedy Randomised Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) heuristic optimisation method was applied for estimating a future injection strategy. This approach is combined with a risk analysis methodology, a popular approach in financial mathematics. As a result, it is possible to estimate how likely it is to reach a production goal.
According to the simulations, it is possible to increase oil production by 10% in one year by implementing a smart injection strategy with low statistical uncertainty. Resulting from this research project, a computational tool was developed. It is now possible to estimate NARX models from any field under fluid injection as well as finding the best future injection scenario.