This thesis analyses Mexico’s recent radical policy change in its oil sector, reflecting a global energy paradigm shift towards greater state intervention. Historically, Mexico relied on crude oil exports to the US and refined product imports, making its energy security vulnerable to price volatility and trade policies. In 2018, President López Obrador redirected oil production towards domestic refining and limited extraction to 1.8 mbd, shifting PEMEX’s focus from maximising oil exports to increasing production of fuels, petrochemicals, and fertilisers. The research question is ‘Why, after a long period of policy stability and incremental changes, has refining suddenly emerged as one of the most pressing policy-issues on Mexico’s political agenda?’ The aim is to deepen understanding of key factors shaping attention dynamics and driving policy change in Mexican energy politics. Two arguments are made. First, López Obrador, as policy entrepreneur, instrumentalised attention-grabbing strategies and leveraged a nationalist discourse to build support for his energy policy. Second, the National Regeneration Movement and allied parties played a key role exercising their de jure legislative power to form parliamentary majorities and pass the energy budget, as well as their de facto convening power to draw macro-level attention and mobilise masses. This study applies Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, using qualitative analysis and data triangulation through semi-structured interviews, discourse analysis of López Obrador’s campaign speeches, 1,423 morning conferences, government and party advertising campaigns, and parliamentary debates. It reviews primary and secondary sources, along with macroeconomic, budgetary, and PEMEX indicators (2000-2024), covering four presidents from three major parties. This thesis primary contributes to theory highlighting the role of policy entrepreneurs and political parties as key drivers of attention dynamics and policy change. It enhances the Punctuated Equilibrium model introducing two complementary explanatory factors: conflict expansion between institutional venues and party politics, emphasising competition, partisan conflict, and differentiation incentives.
