Use of satellite-based global Earth Observation products to support national mitigation strategies to reduce forest carbon emissions

Forests are vitally important for the World to achieve carbon neutrality as called for in the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This thesis explores existing challenges in integrating global maps derived from satellite-based Earth observation to quantifying forest dynamics and fluxes (hereafter 'EO products') in national reporting to the UNFCCC. Focusing on developing tropical countries this thesis reveals a notable underutilization of EO products in national reporting (Chapter 2).

Chapters 3 and 4 delve into this low uptake, revealing striking divergences in deforestation maps, in its magnitude and spatial distribution (Chapter 3), and identify large omission and commission errors linked to shifting agriculture (Chapter 4). While combining maps can improve the accuracy of deforestation estimates, large errors remain. However, correcting the estimates with a reference sample renders relatively similar area estimates regardless of the map used to stratify the sample (Chapter 4). Using the maps for stratification is one of the practical demonstrations of how the EO products are ingested in national monitoring systems with such examples of uptake occurring mainly in the reporting of African States and Least Developed Countries (Chapter 2).

This thesis emphasizes the complexities of accurately mapping deforestation in tropical dry forests and concludes that EO products are not as widely employed nor as accurate as perceived within the EO community. The results from this thesis call for a stronger collaboration between national and global land monitoring experts to address the existing disconnect between the available EO products and the requirements of the IPCC Guidelines. By supporting the measurement reporting and verification capacity of Parties to the UNFCCC, the EO community fills an important information gap to both the national and global (Global Stocktake) understanding of land use carbon fluxes and trends.