Landscape Structure and Sustainability of Flood Regulating Service: Landscape and Hydrologic Modelling of the Ci Kapundung and Ci Sangkuy Upper Water Catchment Areas in the Bandung Basin

It is widely acknowledged that the alteration of landscape structure affects the provision of ecosystem services. Many studies have been conducted to simulate land cover changes based on scenarios and to assess the impact of changes in the environment using modelling. However, the assessments of how land cover changes influence streamflow regimes are still lacking. This research aims to investigate potential landscape structure scenarios of Ci Kapundung and Ci Sangkuy upper water catchment areas. The two watersheds are located in Bandung Basin, Java Island, Indonesia. This thesis addresses the ongoing needs of comparative studies on landscape planning to support ecosystem services using sites with different biophysical environment.
An integrated Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model was used in this research to simulate the land cover change and to project the future land cover compositions and distributions based on four scenarios (e.g. Status Quo, existing policy-based scenario, ecological design-based scenario, and Backcasting scenario). The model used land cover maps, which have been developed from the multi-resolution of satellite imagery. Although CA-Markov models have been broadly used to simulate urban growth, the applications to model forest cover are still rare. Moving average analysis was conducted to assess the impact of land cover change to flood regulation. The CA-Markov model was coupled with the MIKE SHE hydrologic model to assess the flow metric responses across the four future development scenarios and to investigate the types of vegetation that can improve flood regulation.
This study offers plausible approaches to integrate hybrid data sources in the land change and hydrologic models, by mitigating the data gaps in satellite imagery and the limited spatial data, which is required by the two models. The research discusses how models provide opportunities for researchers and practitioners to assess the effects of landscape planning in a water catchment area to flooding.