Transport planning relies extensively on forecasts of traveller behaviour over horizons of 20 years and more. Implicit in such forecasts is the assumption that travellers
tastes, as represented by the behavioural model parameters, are constant over time. This assumption is referred to as the temporal transferability of the models. This thesis presents four main contributions in this area.
First, a comprehensive review of the transferability literature in the context of the temporal transferability of mode-destination models. This review demonstrated
that there is little evidence about the transferability of mode-destination models over typical forecasting horizons, and further that most evidence is from models of commuter mode choice.
Second, further empirical evidence on the temporal transferability of mode destination models using data from Toronto and Sydney for transfer periods of up to 20 years in duration. The transferability of commuter and non-commuter travel has been compared, and models of non-commute travel were found to be less temporally transferable. Improving model specification through fixed socio-economic parameters was found to improve model transferability, and the travel time and socio-economic parameters were found to be more transferability than the cost parameters and the model constants.
Third, and most novel, what is believed to be the first empirical evidence on the impact of taking account of heterogeneity in cost and in-vehicle time sensitivity on the temporal transferability of mode-destination models. This analysis demonstrated that while accounting for taste heterogeneity led to a better fit to the base data, there was no evidence that these models were more transferable than models without random heterogeneity. This may be due to the taste heterogeneity specification over-fitting the base data.
Fourth, practical recommendations are presented for model developers on how to maximise the transferability of mode-destination models used for assessing policy.
