The potential role of walking and cycling to increase resilience of transport systems to future external shocks: creating an indicator of who could get to work by walking and cycling if there was no fuel for motorised transport

There are finite limits to resources, both extractable raw materials and planetary life support resources. Because of this, it is possible that there will be a severe and long lasting reduction in the fuel available for motorised transport which could manifest itself suddenly as a fuel shock. This thesis is concerned with the conceptual design, methodological development and application of a new spatially explicit transport policy indicator which estimates: Who could get to work tomorrow by walking and cycling if there was a fuel shock today? This thesis estimates the potential that walking and cycling have to increase resilience to fuel shocks in the period immediately after the fuel shock.
A conceptual model of resilience to fuel shocks by individuals was devised. A novel hybrid static spatial microsimulation technique was developed. It was used to generate a population of individuals with the appropriate attributes to estimate for large populations the capacity to make journeys using only walking and cycling. This modelling process is generic and can be used to generate indicator results wherever suitable data exist. Using a simple scenario of a fuel shock which occurs today, current data could be used to estimate the indicator. A case study using the census data covering England, the Health Survey For England and other data sets was produced. Validation of the modelling process informs the analysis of the results.
The results demonstrate the ability of the indicator to show variation between areas, in both a base case and when specific policy measures are applied. The base case indicator estimated that nationally in England only 44% (±4.85%) of individuals have capacity to commute to work by walking and cycling following a fuel shock. A local analysis of Leeds identified the spatial patterns of attributes which influence the indicator, allowing greater understanding of the geographical influences on capacity to travel by active modes. A policy package increasing bicycle availability, health and fitness and ensuring the ability of children to travel to school without needing adult escort was found to have a significant effect in 99% of English Output Areas.
The indicator calculation methodology has produced significant improvements in the estimation of capacity to travel by active modes. Assuming everyone can cycle 8km (a common assumption in transport planning) overestimates capacity of the population to commute by active modes. The indicator identified a mean difference of 26% across all OAs. By considering constraints the indicator estimates of mean maximum distance travel distance by active modes differ by 73% compared to methods which ignore constraints.
The indicator produced is policy relevant; The indicator can be judged as a good indicator when assessed against criteria for good indicators established by other workers. The modelling process is generic and can be applied to other scenarios. The results were presented at different extents and resolutions; making a useful and flexible spatially explicit indicator tool.