Monetary policy in developing countries: the case of Nigeria

In recent times, monetary policy has increasingly adopted the interest rate as an instrument and inflation as the ultimate objective. This is congruous with the propositions of the New consensus macroeconomics (NCM) and synonymous with the somewhat widespread practice of inflation targeting. However, the optimality of a monetary policy approach depends critically on its effectiveness and costs; which would differ between developing and developed countries. This thesis investigates the effectiveness and costs of an NCM-type monetary policy in Nigeria. Essentially, it is a systematic study of the implications of monetary policy in Nigeria, while paying attention to the peculiarities of the Nigerian economy and using a rigorous up-to-date framework. Effectiveness is investigated by considering some underlying assumptions of the NCM. First, the assumption of a complete pass-through from the policy interest rate to the market rates (which is critical for the success of monetary policy) is investigated. Here an array of market, retail deposit and lending rates are examined while an attempt is also made to capture the role of financial market (under)development. Second, the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand is investigated, since it constitutes the intermediate target of policy. Given the high incidence of poverty in Nigeria and our associated assumption that consumption would, in this case, be inelastic to policy changes, the aggregate demand effect is limited to investigating the responsiveness of investment to monetary policy induced changes in the interest rate. Finally, the cost and benefit analysis of monetary policy in Nigeria is investigated by estimating a NCM-type Phillips curve. To understand the dynamics and source of inflation the standard NCM-type Phillips curve is augmented with supply factors. The relative importance of demand vis-à-vis supply factors as well as the cost and benefits of disinflation are thereafter determined. These are analysed using both theoretical and empirical approaches. Results indicated that an NCM-type monetary policy is generally ineffective in anchoring interest rates or aggregate demand and may be conducted at a considerably high cost in terms of output loss and financial instability. These findings and their policy implications are not entirely surprising given the institutional features of the Nigerian economy. They generally suggest that the use of interest rate policies tended to create more problems than it can solve. Hence, to avert the associated problems, there is a need for other instruments which the central bank can control effectively. Moreover, monetary policy focus should be on long-run output expansion and short-run price-stability, rather than the converse. This would have the benefit of moderating poverty and unemployment.