Large-scale integration of renewable energy sources in the future energy system of Colombia

In recent years, governments around the world have been increasing their attention on energy supply policies. These policies are focused towards three main energy goals that define the energy trilemma: security of supply, affordability and environmental sustainability. In the case of Colombia, the diversification of the energy mix including larger shares of renewable energy sources (RES) is a significant part of the national energy strategy towards a sustainable and more secure energy system. Historically, the country has relied on the intensive use of hydropower and fossil fuels as the main energy sources. Colombia has a huge renewables potential, and therefore the exploration of different pathways for their integration is required. The aim of this study is to assess the integration of variable renewable technologies and flexibility options into national energy systems by analysing future scenarios (towards 2030 and 2040). EnergyPLAN was the modelling tool employed for building the country’s model and simulate the reference year scenario and future alternatives. The study was divided in three research topics for its analysis: initially, the impacts of increasing shares of variable renewable sources in the energy system towards 2030 were analysed using five alternatives scenarios. Subsequently, a techno-economic optimisation was performed in order to assess the combined effects of large-scale energy storage and cross-border interconnections in the power system. Finally, the impact of road transport electrification in supporting the energy transition in the longer term (2040) was evaluated for the national system. The results showed that an increase in the shares of wind, solar and bioenergy combined with energy storage, electric vehicles and a strong interconnected market could achieve significant reductions in CO2 emissions and savings in the total fuel consumption of the country. The results of this work will be of much assistance to policymakers that are developing a roadmap towards low carbon energy systems in Colombia and other countries with similar potential and characteristics.