Evaluating the potential of adoption of solar photovoltaic systems to enhance electricity supply security in Ghana

The adequacy and security of electricity supply in most developing and under-developed countries is affected by intermittencies. This makes the need for alternate source of electricity generation very vital. However, most published studies on electricity supply security overlook the significance of household consumers. This gap in research and the limited understanding of this phenomenon supports aim of this study. The general purpose and aim of the study was to assess the potential of household consumers to become prosumers (producers and consumers of electricity) to enhance supply security in Ghana. The constraints on economic growth due to the lack of supply security was a key reason why the study was carried on Ghana. In this study the technique of Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) was used with extracts from the adoption model of the Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) model. The model was used to simulate how three different classes (lower, middle and higher income) of consumers in three different towns adopt Photovoltaic (PV) energy as a result of electricity outages. The results show that in a town with 1,000 households, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.1% of the population have the potential to generate electricity between 0 – 50 kWh, 51 – 300 kWh, 301 – 600 kWh and 600+ kWh respectively. This was carried out for two other towns with household populations of 4,000 and 40,000. The results further show that middle class households that fall between tariffs band 51 – 300 kWh and 301 – 600 kWh have the most potential to contribute to electricity supply security. They contribute to about 60% of the total PV generation.