An Approach to the Assessment of Resilience in Indonesian Fertiliser Industry Supply Networks

The fertiliser industry is a significant contributor to the Indonesian economy. Given the need to distribute its products to customers on the 17,000 islands making up the Indonesian archipelago, capacity and availability of ports is a major factor in managing fertiliser product lifecycles and the supply networks. Fluctuations in the availability of infrastructure influence levels of risk in the supply networks. Supply network resilience is important to maintain the performance of the Indonesian fertiliser industry. Currently, decision makers in the Indonesian fertiliser industry use risk assessment reports to assess resilience. Discussions with Indonesian fertiliser industry managers highlighted a second, port management, report that is used to evaluate the availability of infrastructure. An opportunity was identified to use both reports in assessing resilience. This thesis is based on the premise that the risk assessment report can be used as an information resource for resilience assessment. A theoretical framework, based on a synthesis of literature and interviews with industry practitioners, is proposed. Results from interviews concluded that the supply network is a system consisting of social and technical factors. Thus, the approach needed to include both factors. Secondary data collected from risk assessment reports and primary data from brainstorming with key people in the industry were used to validate the approach. The theoretical framework was used to inform the construction of a conceptual model that was populated with data from a real-world case study. A simulation model was then built to translate the conceptual model into a practical application. The simulation model was used to investigate the results of the resilience assessment in different scenarios and predict levels of risk. Early feedback from Indonesian fertiliser industry practitioners indicated that the model could be valuable in the assessment of resilience. This research provides a new approach for managers to predict the level of risk in supply networks. Since the Indonesian fertiliser industry is owned and governed by the Indonesian state, the approach could be used by policy makers as a prototype to assess the current condition of the supply network in Indonesian industries and the output could be used to underpin the planning of supply networks in the future. For academia, the approach provides a new theoretical framework for research on supply network resilience and presents a real example of how agent-based modelling might be used as a tool to support the assessment of resilience.