Higher Education in Wales - Who Goes and Who Gains?

Quantitative analysis of the Higher Education participation decision has long been
neglected in the economic literature. This thesis aims to rectify this situation by
devising econometric Higher Education participation models based on Youth Cohort
Study, Higher Education Statistics Agency and Census data. As well as establishing
which academic or socio-economic traits are most likely to influence the Higher
Education participation decision this thesis investigates the changes in English and
Welsh Higher Education participation rates associated with the introduction of
£1,200 up-front tuition fees in the UK in 1998 and the introduction of £3,000 top-up
fees in England in 2006. Disaggregating the overall Higher Education participation
rate by different degree subject categories, as well as breaking overall tuition fee
impacts down by explanatory variable categories, will alongside a Difference-in
Differences modelling analysis offer the most in-depth insight into the Higher
Education participation decision to date. In addition to focussing on the Higher
Education participation decision in isolation the thesis will also estimate the English
and Welsh returns to education associated with First Degree study in order to
determine whether or not differences in the returns to certain degree subject
categories have the ability to change young peoples’ choice of degree subject in the
first place. Key findings of this research are that the Higher Education participation
decision is greatly affected if households experience income constraints resulting
from factors such as unemployment or lone parenthood. With regards to the
introduction of tuition fees, English and Welsh young people exhibit the same
reaction patterns and worry less about the nominal size of tuition fees, but rather how
they have to be paid for. Post-study income contingent repayments are preferred to
up-front tuition fee liabilities. Under the former tuition fee repayment scheme by
degree subject disaggregated Higher Education participation rates do not reveal that
any type of degree subject has suffered in the light of an increase in top-up tuition
fees up to £3,000, which is coherent with the notion that young people do not change
their degree choices towards degrees offering higher returns, even if tuition fees rise
dramatically. If tuition fees rise from zero to £1,200 and have to be paid up-front,
then low return degree attendance rates experience stark declines. In addition to
these findings the thesis also offers policy guidelines geared towards increasing
degree study for certain types of degrees.