Three-Dimensional Solar Flare Forecasting

Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation spanning across the electromagnetic spectrum and are key drivers of space weather phenomena. They are closely linked to other solar energetic phenomena such as coronal mass ejections and energetic particle events which have the potential to cause damage to both satellite-based or ground-based critical electronic infrastructure. Hence prediction or forecasting of such events is of key value to space weather research. Traditional techniques related to solar flare forecasting have focused on studying these parameters on the photosphere, where the magnetic field measurements are routinely available. However, recent studies on magnetic helicity and proxy parameters of the horizontal gradient of the vertical magnetic field, have shown that extrapolating the vertical magnetic field data obtained at the photosphere to higher altitudes could potentially improve flare prediction time. In this connection, we decide to extend such an approach to (i) polarity inversion lines - lines that demarcate regions of oppositely directed vertical field regions on the solar surface and (ii) R-value, a filtered version of magnetic flux, computed in close vicinity of polarity inversion lines. In this thesis, these features are studied based on their magnitudes and temporal evolution, spanning across multiple heights in the low solar atmosphere (up to ∼ 3 Mm).