The escalating demand for ecosystem services intensifies pressure on land resources to deliver multiple benefits simultaneously, often leading to shifts in land use, stakeholder conflicts, and inequalities in access and outcomes. However, little is known about how stakeholders perceive Green Infrastructure (GI) currently and how it may evolve in the future regarding GI heat mitigation in rapidly urbanising low-income regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. This thesis employs a systematic review, statistical modelling, and participatory scenario approach to explore how GI landscapes can be managed to optimise cooling services while minimising inequality.
The thesis begins with a systematic review that identifies geographical gaps and shows that thermally vulnerable neighbourhoods are often defined by socio-demographic characteristics. While challenges remain in understanding how residents perceive GI patterns and impact on psychological wellbeing. Using Antananarivo as a case study, the research identified vulnerable neighbourhoods by examining heat exposure and GI inequity. Results found that vulnerable neighbourhoods with higher Gini values typically have lower GI coverage and rely on agricultural land for temperature mitigation, whereas neighbourhoods with lower inequality display greater GI coverage, with non-agricultural GI providing stronger cooling services. Cooling thresholds were retrieved, with contributions varying between day and night. Stakeholders from regions characterized by ‘inequity-heat’ ‘inequity-cool’ and ‘equity-cool’ neighbourhoods co-created future GI. Four scenarios emerged: A Loveable Future, A Development Priority World, A Worst Tomorrow, and A Green Awareness Scenario. All scenarios project urban expansion, intensified heat exposure and loss of GI, except Scenario IV, which shows a slight increase. However, Scenario I performs best by prioritising equitable GI development, temperature regulation, and wellbeing outcomes.
Building on this research, future work could explore how localised, stakeholder-informed scenarios be integrated with broader climate models to enhance equity in multiple ecosystem services, providing lessons applicable to diverse high-risk areas across Sub-Saharan Africa.
