Crime and routine activities in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic

This thesis examines the impact of human mobility on police-recorded crime in England and Wales through the lens of environmental criminology, specifically Routine Activities Theory and Crime Pattern Theory. The research investigates this relationship through three interconnected stages using police-recorded crime data and Google Community Mobility Reports.
Initially, observed crime rates during and after the pandemic are compared with forecasted crime rates based on historical data. The second stage quantifies the relationship between mobility changes and crime at both national and local authority district levels. National-level analysis demonstrates strong associations but highlights potential confounding factors. At the local authority level, controlling for time-invariant local-specific differences significantly strengthens causal inferences. In the third stage, a detailed case study on shoplifting and retail mobility explores the spatiotemporal variability of the mobility-crime relationship. The analysis reveals considerable spatial heterogeneity, with some areas experiencing higher shoplifting rates in response to increased retail mobility, particularly early in reopening periods.
Overall, the thesis provides empirical evidence for how mobility impacts crime highlighting the importance of localized contexts, benefiting from the unique changes on routine activities created by dramatic shifts in human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic.