Methods to understand the whole life carbon implications of school retrofit at scale

The built environment directly accounts for 25% of UK emissions, the majority of which are caused by energy consumption from existing buildings. Mass intervention is required, including replacement of existing fossil fuel heating systems and improvements to fabric efficiency.
In fact, 97% of stock within Europe needs upgrading to meet 2050 emissions targets.
As operational emissions are reduced, the embodied impact of building materials will account for a larger proportion of future emissions. As such, whole life carbon retrofit assessments are advocated to improve our understanding of how to meet carbon targets. A large proportion of current work focuses on residential properties and fabric retrofit measures. When applied at scale, studies often use an archetype approach with buildings grouped into specific age and form categories.
Non-residential buildings often have an increased geometric complexity. This work demonstrates a parametric approach, linking building form to retrofit decision making from a whole life carbon perspective. The results illustrate how building form influences different intervention decisions. The comparison of retrofit to demolition and new construction shows only the most inefficient building forms would benefit from replacement.
A study of English school stock demonstrates the impact of refurbishment on total emissions compared to a devised carbon budget. Results show pathways in which the carbon budget can be met, highlighting the impact of including building form in retrofit decision making.
This thesis shows that retrofit of schools must increase, 10 - 50 times from current practice, to meet the 2050 Climate Change Committee (CCC) carbon budget. The retrofit rate is reduced by 20% by prioritising the least thermally efficient buildings in both fabric and form. The high embodied carbon cost of refurbishment, especially heat pumps, prevents school stock meeting its most stringent, Tyndall centre derived, budget even if all buildings are retrofit in 2025.