Burton, Lauren Ellice ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4020-4249
(2024)
The importance of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene and its implications for the future.
PhD thesis, University of Leeds.
Abstract
Earth’s climate is rapidly changing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. As well as uncertainty in future emissions and required mitigation levels, there is uncertainty in how the climate system behaves in a warmer world. One line of enquiry to constrain this uncertainty and explore the patterns and dynamics of the climate system in a warmer world is palaeoclimatology, the study of Earth’s past climate(s).
This thesis specifically considers the climate of the Pliocene (~3 million years ago), commonly referred to as an ‘analogue’ for future climate change given its similar-to-modern atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and comparable magnitude of warming to the end of the 21st century. Given the dominance of greenhouse gas emissions in driving climate change today, a novel method is presented which allows for an assessment of the role of CO2 forcing in Pliocene climate. Results indicate that CO2 forcing is the most influential driver of Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation change, but there is also a significant influence from non-CO2 forcing (such as changes to ice sheets) which may be less analogous to near-term future climate change scenarios. Results for sea surface temperature are compared to available geological proxy data, and implications for its interpretation discussed.
Pliocene climate model simulations are also compared to future climate scenarios presented in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in a critical assessment of the Pliocene as a palaeoclimate analogue. It is emphasised throughout that broad statements like ‘The Pliocene is an analogue for the future’ may be misleading, and should be replaced with more critical, nuanced statements that consider the spatial and temporal limitations of the conclusions as well as the aim and/or purpose of assessing analogy between the Pliocene and the future.
Metadata
Supervisors: | Haywood, Alan and Tindall, Julia and Dolan, Aisling and Hill, Daniel |
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Related URLs: | |
Awarding institution: | University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Dr Lauren Ellice Burton |
Date Deposited: | 04 Feb 2025 11:42 |
Last Modified: | 04 Feb 2025 11:42 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:etheses.whiterose.ac.uk:36046 |
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