Cross-border climate change risk in the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain

The global food system plays an important role in filling gaps in local food production, but climate change poses new risks to international agrifood supply chains. Both gradual changes in climate and extreme weather events can affect multiple elements of global supply chains, such as the production and transport of crops, leading to direct and indirect impacts across the world.
Climate change impacts transmitted across borders have received relatively little attention in the academic literature and in policy. Risk assessments and adaptation planning has largely focused on domestic climate risks, despite initial studies indicating that cross-border climate risks can be of comparable magnitude. Key gaps in the literature on this topic include lack of research on specific sectors, supply chain stages beyond production, extreme climate events and concurrent climate impacts.
Overall, this thesis aims to advance methods for the assessment of cross-border climate risks transmitted via crop supply chains, and to apply these in the context of a key cross-border supply chain (Brazil-Europe soy), to improve understanding of how climate change could disrupt the global food system. I develop a methodological approach for assessing supply chain exposure to cross-border climate impacts, addressing the research gaps described above by considering multiple climate hazard and supply chain element combinations, drawing on subnational trade data and climate change projections up to the end of this century. I draw on interviews with soy supply chain stakeholders to consider the different vulnerabilities and potential responses of various stakeholder groups. Together, this thesis analyses cross-border climate risk under various angles and could help stakeholders understand key risks and guide adaptation.
As climate impacts accelerate, alongside geopolitical and economic disruption to global trade, business and policy actors are re-evaluating their supply chains and risk management strategies, making this a critical moment for improving understanding of climate risk.