The reverse escalation of commitment: Unravelling the termination of infrastructure megaprojects during the delivery stage

Infrastructure megaprojects (IMs) are large-scale, highly complex, capital-intensive investments costing over USD one billion, typically encompassing many projects to transform and enhance essential aspects of society. IMs encompass various sectors, including transportation, energy, telecommunications, and urban development, and often involve significant engineering challenges and long-term planning. IMs play a pivotal role in driving economic growth, enhancing public services, and promoting social development, continually shaping the future of cities, regions, and countries. Despite their inherent complexities, strategic importance, significant financial commitments, and critical impact on public welfare, there is a common belief that they are never terminated once the delivery stage of IMs commences. Termination is the premature discontinuation of a planned project before its intended completion and achieving its objectives. Project termination can occur during any project lifecycle phase, from the initial planning and design stages to the later stages of construction or implementation. This thesis focuses on IMs and, more specifically, their termination during the delivery stage.

Research focusing on the termination of IMs during the delivery stage is a notable gap in project studies literature. Understanding the factors leading to project termination and its consequences is crucial to developing more resilient and successful project management practices. Therefore, the relevance of this research relies on investigating the termination of IMs during the delivery stage by contributing significantly to project studies by developing a theory that sense-makes the termination of IMs during the delivery stage, namely the "Reverse Escalation of Commitment (EoC)". Project termination may result from various factors, such as changes in strategic priorities, regulatory issues, or a reassessment of the project's feasibility or benefits, to mention a few. This thesis identifies the critical factors, patterns, and combinations of factors that are conducive to the termination of IMs during the delivery stage.

Lastly, this thesis shows that the termination of IMs during the delivery stage presents significant challenges for governments, investors, and communities, which highlights the need for improved project management, risk mitigation strategies, and stakeholder engagement to ensure the successful completion or timely decision of IMs termination.