Investigating Water Conservation Strategies in Kuwait: A Micro-Component Backcasting Approach

Household water demand has dramatically increased in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the last few decades, due to rapid population growth and changing lifestyles. Growing demand has been met by increasing supply capacity, largely via new desalination plants and over-abstracting groundwater. The continuous investment in water supply to avoid a supply-demand gap has been the default strategy in the GCC, yet reliance on a supply-side approach is unsustainable and associated with declining groundwater, and reliance on desalination that results in major carbon emission and environmental impact whilst also taking a large and growing share of oil revenues. This study examines the main issues associated with water scarcity in the GCC region, then determines the scale of conservation measures that will be needed to reduce water demand to a more sustainable level. In addition, to explore the wider economic and environmental benefits resulting from adopting the conservation measures, as well as, to determine the management feasibility of doing so. The state of Kuwait has been selected as a case study as it shares the hydrological characteristics of GCC countries but is the most challenging case, experiencing extreme water stress, due to its very high per capita consumption (PCC), but lowest per capita freshwater availability in the world. The research focuses on the household sector which represents 60% of total water demand in Kuwait. Based on the initial ‘Business As Usual’ demand forecast of 664 MCM in 2050, annual demand must reduce to 456 Million Cubic Metre (MCM) under a no new water target ‘Light scenario’ (1% saving per annum; 32% in total), to 345 MCM under a moderate target ‘Intermediate scenario’ (48% saving), and to 239 MCM (64% saving) to meet the most aggressive target ‘Optimistic scenario’ for 2050.
To identify how to meet these targets, the study has used the backcasting approach whereby water conservation measures have been examined for their ability to reduce demand to the 2050 targets. Three backcast conservation measures have been utilised; a) technology (adoption of innovative appliances); b) economic (water pricing) and; c) education (public awareness) interventions. Backcast scenarios have been modelled using a Micro-Component (MC) demand model that has enabled addressing of specific household uses (e.g., showering, toilet flushing) linked to conservation interventions. These interventions have been manipulated in the backcast MC model in which two backcast packages have been developed for each scenario. The output of the backcast scenarios has shown that; (i) technology intervention has superior performance relative to other interventions; (ii) the Optimistic scenario delivered a very efficient economic and environmental performance but is hard to implement; and (iii) the Light scenario delivered a fair economic and environmental performance but is more feasible to implement.