Structural change for a post-growth economy: The relationships between energy use, labour productivity and economic growth

To avoid environmental breakdown, high-income countries need to transition to a post-growth economy that can deliver wellbeing within planetary boundaries, independent of GDP growth. The post-growth literature recognises that such a transition will require structural change in the sectoral composition of economic output and demand. But the literature is lacking a systematic analysis of the structural change that is desired and how we can achieve it. In my thesis I address the gap by answering the question how structural change can contribute to the transition to a post-growth economy, focusing on the contribution it can make to reducing final energy demand and to reducing labour productivity growth.
I answer the question by combining two research streams. The first stream uses novel estimates of embodied energy and labour productivity of sectors in the UK and Germany to identify labour-intensive service sectors and test the assumption that they can reduce energy use and labour productivity growth. Building on the results I develop a systematic framework for identifying structural change goals for a post-growth economy. The framework splits the economy into 4 sector groups with similar characteristics and structural change goals. The second stream adds new insights to the literature on structural change drivers with a novel decomposition analysis of final energy demand in the UK. I demonstrate that structural change has only made a relatively small contribution to energy demand reductions and has largely been driven by offshoring.
Combining the two streams I assess historical structural change against the goals for a post-growth economy. I find that it has partially been in the right direction. But, to move to a post-growth economy, more attention needs to be paid to the drivers and consequences of structural change, as the historical drivers are intertwined with growth in GDP, labour productivity, incomes and offshoring.