Assessing the feasibility of energy transitions in Indonesia to reduce both air pollution and GHG emission

The Indonesian energy system is a substantial contributor to both air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Emissions of air pollutants can cause high levels of particulate matter (PM) pollution that is damaging to human health whilst emissions of GHGs have resulted in Indonesia being a substantial contributor to global GHG emissions leading to global heating as well as leading to regional climate change. GHGs and air pollutants are often co-emitted from the same sources and the energy sector in Indonesia contributes approximately 61% and 67% to these emissions respectively.

A number of energy scenarios, designed to transition to the use of more sustainable energy systems, have been developed by the Indonesian government as well as other regional and international organisations. These scenarios focus on GHG emission reductions (ignoring the implications of shifts in energy use and supply for air pollution emissions) and exclude considerations of the actual feasibility of the energy transitions identified (both in terms of practical (e.g. cost, technology) as well as physical (e.g. geographical suitability) of the energy transitions proposed.

This study explores these issues by developing an updated GHG and air pollution emission inventory for Indonesia. This allows the emissions from the energy sector to be estimated and placed in context of all Indonesian emissions contributing to air pollution and GHG emissions. The study then assesses the feasibility of potential energy transitions to cleaner or renewable forms of energy provision. This is achieved firstly by consultation with Indonesian energy stakeholders to assess the feasibility of proposed energy transitions to 2030 and secondly, using ‘energy geography’ theory to assess the feasibility of the proposed types of energy provision across Indonesia’s islands. This analysis is used to develop realistic energy transition scenarios that are investigated to assess their benefit to human health and global mean temperature.

The study finds that the proposed energy scenarios substantially improve human health and reduce Indonesia’s impact on global mean temperature. The ‘maximum feasible renewable (MFR)’, ‘clean energy (such as Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG))’ and ‘renewable energy’ scenario resulted in the avoidance of premature mortality by 134,000, 23,000, and 31,000 people respectively. The ‘maximum renewable energy’ transition can be achieved by considering island’s energy sources. Based on the National Energy Policy of 2006 Indonesia plan to reach target total primary energy supply of 400 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 25% of renewable energy in the energy mix by 2030. The results from this thesis find that maximum benefit from energy future transitions would be achieved by considering both of GHGs and air pollution in energy related emission reduction policy