Crime, illegal waste disposal, and pluvial flooding: Three challenges to the sustainability of a tropical conurbation

Rapid urbanization in Latin America and the Caribbean has led to considerable social, economic and environmental problems. This thesis aims to provide a better understanding of the links between natural and social factors in informing the development of urban policy strategies that can steer cities in Latin America and the Caribbean towards a more sustainable future. This thesis focuses on three issues that have emerged as key challenges for the implementation of policies that promote more socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable urban development in the region: growing socio-economic inequality; the limitations of solid waste collection and its processing systems; and increasing pressures on infrastructure caused by natural hazards. The thesis explores Barranquilla, Colombia, as a case study of a Latin American urban zone. First, the thesis explores the role of socio-economic factors as determinants of criminal activity in a context of increasing climate stress. Second, it considers the scope for public intervention aimed at eradicating all open-air dumps in Barranquilla, using a contingent valuation study to explain the degree to which households are willing to participate and pay for such intervention. This work applied a two-step regression model to a sample of 815 households within the urban territory to assess the socioeconomic factors that determine the households’ preferences. Finally, the determinants of households’ preferences for implementing a sustainable urban drainage system to cope with the phenomenon of flash-floods formation is investigated. A discrete choice experiment was applied to estimate households’ willingness to pay for three attributes of a SuDS: 1. Reducing the number of fatalities; 2. Improving vehicular mobility; and 3. Improving pedestrian mobility. A basic mixed logit model and an extended mixed logit were used to determine households’ preferences for each attribute. From a policy-making perspective, this research reveals new evidence that can provide insights into the types of policy approaches that are needed to enhance the sustainability of Barranquilla. It shows the need for a new, more integrative approach to policy, to consider climate and environmental factors alongside structural and socio-economic ones, such as high levels of income inequality and low levels of educational attainment in the poorest areas of the city. It also highlights the importance of improving trust between communities and authorities in order to implement these policies effectively, so that real progress can be made towards more sustainable futures for Barranquilla and similar cities in the Latin American region.