Stated Preference Study of Port and Inland Mode Choice for Containerized Exports from Java

The aims of this thesis are to understand the issue of intermodal transport in Indonesia and to examine the impact of related policies on shifting to the rail mode; as an attempt to cut GHG emissions from containerized exports from Java.
Stated preference (SP) and Revealed preference (RP) data of exporters and forwarders was collected for this purpose.
This study employed four inland mode attributes (cost, time, reliability and GHG emissions) and two port attributes (port cost and ship calls frequency) to examine the alternatives. The SP-only and combined SP-RP data are employed to estimate the model using Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit, Mixed Multinomial Logit, and Mixed Nested Logit.
The estimation results indicate that increases in inland mode cost, inland mode time, inland mode GHG emissions, and port cost all have very substantial adverse effects on the alternative’s utility. Conversely, inland mode reliability and frequency of ship calls have positive influence on the utility.
Five single policies and four combined policies have been simulated using the best model gained from the estimation. Two single policies of cutting fuel subsidies for road mode and giving incentives to rail freight would provide the most important encouragement to modal shift. Nevertheless, the biggest reduction in GHG emissions can be obtained through policies of cutting fuel subsidies for road mode and putting restrictions on times and routes permitted for the road transport operations.
The primary contribution of this research rests on its analysis of the exporters’ and freight forwarders’ attitudes related to GHG emissions, and the possible effects of policies that may be implemented to reduce GHG emissions. The novelty of this research is in its development of a joint model of port and inland mode choice from the exporters’ and forwarders’ perspective.