Factors associated with mathematics attainment and educational aspirations: A comparative psychometric study of Japan, Türkiye, and England

It is widely recognized that mathematics plays a fundamental role in the advancement of science and technology. There is, therefore, considerable interest in research on factors that affect mathematics achievement. The motivation of students is considered one of the most influential factors in their performance in mathematics. The expectancy-value theory (EVT) is one of the dominant theories of motivation. This study uses Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 data for 8th-grade students in Japan, Türkiye, and England. This study aims to contribute to the field in terms of methodological and substantive aspects. Methodologically, it examines the psychometric properties (factor structure, method effects of negative coded items, reliability) of TIMSS 2019 motivation measures of Japan, Türkiye, and England. It also compares confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory structural equation modelling (ESEM) measurement models in terms of model fit. Substantively, it investigates the relationship between students' motivation towards mathematics (mathematics self-concept (MSC), mathematics intrinsic value (MIV) and mathematics utility value (MUV)) and student background factors (gender and home educational resources) in predicting mathematics achievement and educational aspiration. It also examines the interaction between MSC and task value (MIV and MUV). A variety of advanced quantitative methods are used to analyse data, including factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), exploratory structural equation modelling (ESEM), and mediation analysis under structural equation modelling (SEM). Methodologically, the results of the study show that the TIMSS 2019 motivation measures provide valid and reliable constructs for Japan, Türkiye, and England. v TIMSS 2019 motivation constructs support the a priori factor structure that they are designed to measure. However, negatively coded items negatively affect model fit. Furthermore, the results of this study found a high correlation between mathematics intrinsic value and mathematics self-concept. The ESEM measurement model provides a better model fit in comparison to the CFA measurement model. Substantive results show that mathematical self-concept is the variable with the strongest effect on mathematics achievement among motivational constructs. The interaction of MSC and task value also has a significant effect in predicting mathematics achievement and educational aspiration. Gender has little effect on mathematics achievement, but male students have higher MSC values than female students. Female students have higher educational aspirations than male students. Furthermore, the mediation model provides evidence that motivation constructs, particularly MSC, play a significant mediating role in the relationship between gender and HER and mathematics achievement. Overall, this study makes a key contribution to analysing the psychometric properties of TIMSS 2019 motivation data and understanding its relationship with mathematics achievement and educational aspirations. These findings should be used to inform the development of TIMSS motivation measures and the future development of educational practitioners' understanding of the relationship between student motivation and mathematics achievement.