Defusing carbon bombs – Analysing activism to keep fossil fuels in the ground

After 30 years of UN Climate negotiations under a demand-focussed framing, we have not yet seen a significant bending of the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions. This invites analysis of supply-side measures (“keeping fossil fuels in the ground” (KING)) to bring emissions down and a growing literature is indeed looking at supply-side mitigation. But it is still far from being a mainstream approach. The current research aims to contribute to the field by pursuing the following objectives. Firstly, establish a method for quantifying the emissions impacts of efforts to keep fossil fuels in the ground. Secondly, identify the biggest fossil fuel projects on a global level. Thirdly, identify what strategies the climate movement has used where supply-side mitigation has been successful. To achieve the first objective, I designed a method that breaks supply-side mitigation down into three different categories: keeping fossil fuels in the ground, delaying or cancelling fossil fuel infrastructures and temporary stoppage of projects. I calculated emissions factors that can be easily applied for arriving at estimates of potential emissions of a range of fossil fuel projects. To achieve the second objective, I used the framing of “carbon bombs” and identified the global list of fossil fuel projects above 1 gigaton of potential CO2 emissions. To achieve the third objective, I chose a case study of a carbon bomb in Mexico and conducted interviews with experts and did participant observation in the Mexican Alliance against Fracking. My main results are: A method for quantification of KING movement efforts which is ready to be used by the climate community. The global list of carbon bombs with 425 projects, and the insight that 40% of these projects are new and haven’t started, and the evaluation of their potential emissions exceeding the global 1.5°C carbon budget by a factor of two, pointing to the urgent need to defuse at least some of these carbon bombs. A list of strategies such as researching and distributing information, linking with the frontlines and seeking anti-fracking legislation that have had different degrees of success in contributing to stopping fracking in Mexico. I also identified the economic environment and in particular fossil fuel prices as a relevant context factor producing strong head or tailwinds for these projects, leading to the new framing of “economic windows of opportunity” for fossil fuel projects that can be an analytical tool for the KING movement to understand its campaigning prospects concerning defusing carbon bombs. In a context of increasing international momentum around supply-side mitigation and the call to end building new fossil fuel extraction projects getting stronger, I am contributing a method for a wide audience to understand the potential emissions of individual fossil fuel projects, a global map of priority projects to defuse which outlines the global supply-side mitigation landscape, and a detailed exploration of defusing a carbon bomb in practice.