Appraising the potential impact of a Minimum Unit Price of Alcohol in South Africa: a modelling study with a focus on equity

Broad overview of thesis In this thesis, I present my work modelling a hypothetical Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP ) policy for alcohol in South Africa. This represents the first detailed MUP epidemiological model built outside of a high-income country. I estimate MUP impacts on alcohol consumption, health harms, and various financial variables including retail and government revenue. My epidemiological policy appraisal model is equity-informative through its ability to demonstrate differential impact by wealth quintile. I built the model alongside the delivery of a programme of stakeholder engagement that ensured contextual and policy relevance for South Africa and increased opportunity for impact. I have drawn on methods from the disciplines of public health alcohol research and health economics and provided two distinct, though complimentary, results papers. I have situated my work in the literature of equity-informative health economic modelling of policy appraisal in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).