Improving projections of residential space cooling electricity demand

Air-conditioning (AC) was globally the fastest-growing building end-use over the past three decades, with greater adoption and use in the residential sector set to increase energy demand up to 17-fold by 2050 from current levels. As space cooling is supplied through electricity, the substantial growth in AC demand will raise power generation requirements, while also challenging decarbonisation targets. Despite agreement about the high potential for residential AC demand growth, future projections display significant variability due to uncertainties in the modelling process. This thesis therefore aims to improve projections of future residential AC electricity use. It first uses econometric modelling to improve understanding of the weather-residential electricity use relationship (2000-18) for south and north United States (U.S.) via alternative climatic metrics. It then integrates climatic and non-climatic impacts into residential electricity use projections in 2050 for the nearly-saturated contiguous U.S. market. Finally, it develops a multi-method approach to model the climatic and non-climatic drivers of residential AC electricity use (2000-15) in the European Union’s (EU-28) non-saturated market, and then projects it to 2050. First, degree days with empirical set-point temperatures and humidity metrics improve regional residential electricity use models, still the evidence is weaker for the national model. Second, U.S.-level projections in 2050 indicate that personal income is the main driver of residential electricity use at an annual level, while degree day effects dominate in summer. Third, AC adoption is the principal driver of EU-28 space cooling electricity use, which in turn depends on growing affluence. Findings imply that increasing residential electricity demand will affect most baseload and peak generation capacity respectively for the saturated and un-saturated market. They also suggest that personal income/ weather and diffusion effects are better described in integrated assessment models (IAMs). Improving the energy efficiency of technologies and buildings are key policies in mitigating AC demand growth.