Mainstreaming climate change in the public budgets of developing countries: A mixed method analysis applied to Latin America and the Caribbean Countries

In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that to avoid an increase in the temperature of more than 1.5-2.0oC by 2030, as the Paris Agreement proposes, a reduction of global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions of between 25-45% is needed. To achieve this, most of developed and developing countries have submitted their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), but further work is needed to achieve another goal of the Agreement: making financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHGs and climate-resilient development (UNFCCC, 2015). In this context, this thesis analyses the extent to which developing countries are mainstreaming climate change in their public budget to comply with national and international commitments, and what factors promote and hinder such processes. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and two case studies (Mexico and Colombia), the study found that developing countries, at least in Latin America, are more likely to mainstream climate change in their public budget if there is international support in the form of Overseas Development Aid (ODA) or climate finance. While the thesis identifies international cooperation as a promoter of climate change mainstreaming in the planning and budgetary processes, also it highlights how dependence on fossil fuels in the public finance cycle is a major constraint on such processes. The thesis suggests that while international cooperation remains key to promoting national climate action in developing countries, this will not be enough to achieve transformational changes, if the economies of developing countries remain dependant on fossil fuels.