Internal migration in the United Kingdom: The effects of scale and zonation on migration indicators

This thesis examines the effects of the modifiable area unit problem on indicators of internal migration intensity, pattern and impact in the United Kingdom (UK) using directional migration flow data from the last two censuses of population. Consistent sets of ‘basic spatial units’ are selected that have enabled (i) an investigation of subnational internal migration between local authority districts across the UK as a whole but also (ii) an investigation of migration between wards within in a selected region (Greater London). The analyses utilise sets of migration flow data disaggregated by age, since age is a key proxy for understanding migration from a life course perspective. This research was designed to provide an understanding of the sensitivity of quantitative measures of internal migration behaviour to geographical scale and area configuration, but also to provide new insights into the characteristics of migration propensities and patterns in the two single-year pre-census periods (2000-01 and 2010-11) and the changes that have taken place over the inter-censal decade. The computation of scale and zonation effects has been undertaken using the IMAGE Studio, a software system developed previously to allow cross-national comparison of internal migration indicators. The results reported in the thesis demonstrate that certain indicators, such as intensity of migration and the distance that migrants travel when changing address, have pronounced scale effects with relatively little variation around the mean value at each scale whereas other indicators, such as migration effectiveness and the frictional effect of distance on migrants, tend to exhibit more scale independence but vary more between different zone configurations as the number of zones reduces. Using the same analytical approach with more spatially disaggregated data for a single region highlights characteristics of internal migration that differ from the national picture, but exposes certain problems for which further development of the software is required. The thesis thus provides a useful critique of the IMAGE Studio as well as underlining the necessity for geographic researchers and geodemographic analysts to remain alert to the spatial systems they use when studying demographic phenomena.