Bashing the fash: the effect of civil society opposition on the electoral performance of far right parties in the United Kingdom, 2005-2015

Far right parties attract opposition; that is to say, civil society groups, not formally connected with other political parties, that have as their sole or principal aim achieving a reduction in the number of people who support, and particularly vote for, far right parties. What is the effect of this opposition on far right parties? While the far right is a frequent research topic, what effect different kinds of opposition have on different kinds of far right party is understudied. Using the United Kingdom as a case study, this thesis researches how fascist and populist radical right parties are affected by confrontational and community-building styles of opposition. These are, respectively, the British National Party (BNP), United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Unite Against Fascism (UAF), and Hope not Hate. A mixed methods approach is adopted; the first step is quantitative analysis, and the second is an in-depth analysis of the particular case of Barking and Dagenham from 2006 to 2010, with particular reference to the BNP and allowance made for UKIP. More specifically, this thesis uses regression analysis on a new data set of activity by opposition groups, with local electoral, socio-economic, and demographic information to understand what effects opposition groups have. This is supported by historical and newspaper analysis and elite interviews to understand the nature of the opposition groups and why they campaign in the manners they do, using the particular experiences of Barking and Dagenham to explain where and why effects manifest. The principal results are that opposition of the forms studied does not, in general, have substantive effects. To the extent that there are effects, they are under specific circumstances. Opposition group activity has more effect on UKIP than BNP. Consistent activity over a period of time can reduce voting for far right parties, but short bursts of activity can paradoxically increase voting for them.