CO2 emissions from the transport sector are expected to rapidly increase over the coming years, especially in developing countries. The literature cites numerous measures for mitigating transport CO2 emissions. Diverse technocratic, participatory and integrated approaches and methods exist for assessing these measures. However, studies that explore the feasibility of their implementation in developing countries are still insufficient. Further, assessment methods designed specifically for developing countries characterised by top-down policymaking are required.
Participation of stakeholder groups and the general public in the assessment of transport CO2 mitigation measures is considered essential. However, incorporation of their perspectives and preferences within the assessment process in general, and within developing countries in particular, is still needed. Further, while the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasises the need to understand public views and preferences in developing countries, and how they can be influenced by social learning, empirical evidence in this regard is lacking.
This research consequently develops an integrated model for assessing transport measures in relation to climate change mitigation in Bahrain, a high-income, oil-exporting, developing country. It also aims to advance understanding of stakeholders’ views and preferences regarding mitigation measures and provide empirical evidence on the impact of social learning on assessment results.
Several assessment methods were embedded within a multi-criteria analysis methodology that applied the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). These included environmental and economic assessments, scenario analysis and participatory techniques. A consultative interview-based model and a deliberative workshop-based model were built for assessing the feasibility of implementing mitigation scenarios in Bahrain and exploring the impact of social learning.
The research results indicate that applying fuel economy standards can potentially reduce emissions by 22%. A higher percentage (37%) is attainable using a scenario packaging approach. Results obtained from the first assessment model suggest that no significant differences exist between the preferences of policymakers and experts and those of the general public. Scenario packages were developed as no dominant mitigation scenario was observed. These enabled an exploration of alternatives to lower carbon mobility in Bahrain that were politically and socially acceptable, environmentally effective and economically feasible. Empirical findings on social learning suggest gains in participants’ knowledge and an increased acceptance of a taxation policy. However, the resulting priorities did not differ significantly from those obtained using the first model.
The methodological originality of this research lies in its three-way extension of the AHP methodology. Multi-AHP models accommodate divergent feedback from participants. Scenario packages enable benefits from desired scenarios to be merged. Last, examining the plausibility of the assessment results ensures acceptability and successful implementation.
While the research findings may be case-specific, lessons learnt can be transferred to other contexts. First, the analysis proves that emission reduction potential exists and can be achieved through the implementation of various policies. Second, abatement costs can be relatively low despite fuel price distortions. Third, incorporating stakeholders’ preferences during the assessment process can increase acceptance of mitigation scenarios. Social learning can also contribute to this. Fourth, applying an integrated model using AHP for assessing transport CO2 mitigation measures in developing countries can be rewarding. This model’s application within other energy-consuming sectors, and possibly in developed countries, may also prove fruitful.
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)